On February 3, a recent batch of SpaceX’s Starlink internet-beaming CubeSats suffered a tragedy when a 49-member group of newly launched satellites was struck by a strong geomagnetic storm.
These storms cause the atmosphere to heat up and increase atmospheric density at low deployment altitudes. Onboard GPS indicates that atmospheric drag increased up to 50% during the storm, SpaceX stated in a blog update last week. “The Starlink team instructed the satellites to fly in safe-mode (like a sheet paper) to reduce drag. However, 40 satellites didn’t do so and are now expected to fall into the Earth’s atmosphere.
While this incident constitutes is only a minor setback for SpaceX and its goal of entombing the planet with more than 42,000 of the signal-bouncing devices, geomagnetic storms pose an According to the NOAA, geomagnetic storms are “a major disturbance in Earth’s magnetosphere” and are composed of plasma and high energy particles. They have the same charge and magnetic field as the Sun’s North and South poles.
When that charged solar wind hits Earth’s magnetosphere — more so if it is especially energetic or carries a southern polarization — it can cause magnetic Reconnection of the Dayside Magnetopause. This causes the plasma to accelerate in the region’s magnetic fields towards the planet’s poles, where it excites oxygen and nitrogen atoms, generating the Northern Lights Aurora effect. The magnetosphere also oscillates, creating electric currents that further disrupt the region’s magnetic fields.
“Storms also cause intense currents, changes in radiation belts, and changes in the ionosphere,” states the NOAA. A ring of westward currents around Earth creates magnetic disturbances in space.
The Sun emits a huge blast of solar wind when it travels through space. It hits the Earth’s magnetic core, where all that energy is absorbed into the planet’s magnet field. This causes electrical chaos and makes a lot of atoms in upper atmospheres jiggle in just the right ways to produce a light show. The majesty and beauty of the cosmos is the celestial equivalent to grabbing a wet burp from the bar slob.
There are many solar flares that occur depending on the location of the Sun in its 11-year solar cycle. One solar flare per week is rarer than the other, while there may be several during maximum periods. They oscillate in similar ways, but if the Carrington Event, the largest solar flare ever recorded, were to happen today, it would cause damage to Earth’s satellites and telecom systems. This could result in trillions of dollars that will require months, if not years, of repair. The event drove the Northern aurora borealis southwards to the Caribbean and ignited telegraph lines until they were combustible. Although the March 1989 storm was not as strong as Carrington, it managed to melt an electric transformer in New Jersey and knock out Quebec’s power grid within a matter of seconds. This left 6 million customers without electricity for nine hours.
Geomagnetic storms can also cause havoc to our electrical systems, even if they aren’t electrocuting telegraph operators and destructing power grids. Geomagnetically-induced currents may saturate power transformers’ magnetic cores, leading to overloads. Solar storms can cause changes in the structure and density of the Earth’s atmosphere to disrupt or block high-frequency radio transmissions and ultrahigh-frequency satellite broadcasts. These events can also cause disruption to navigation systems.
In 2017, Dr. Sten Odenwald, of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center stated that a worst-case solar storm could have a similar economic impact to a hurricane or tsunami. There are over 900 satellites in operation, with an estimated replacement value between $170 billion and $230 billion. This supports a $90 billion industry. One scenario showed that a “superstorm” could cost as high as $70 billion because of a combination of lost satellites, profit loss, and service loss.
SpaceX is most concerned about solar storms increasing the drag the atmosphere creates upon passing spacecraft. Although there isn’t much atmospheric in low Earth orbit, where the ISS and most satellites are located, it is enough to create a significant drag on objects passing through. As the Sun’s radiation excites atoms in the lower regions of the atmosphere, this drag is increased during daylight hours. This pushes them higher into LEO, creating a layer with a higher density that satellites must pass through. This effect can be exacerbated by geomagnetic storms that cause large increases in temperature and density of the upper atmosphere.
Gabor Toth, a University of Michigan researcher, stated in a press release last August that there are only two natural catastrophes that could affect the entire US. One is a pandemic. The other is an extreme weather event in outer space.”
He said, “All these technological assets are at risk.” “If an extreme event such as the one in 1859 occurred again, it would completely degrade the power grid, satellite, and communications systems — there are far greater stakes.”
To extend the time it takes for a solar eruption to cause winds to slam into the magnetosphere, Toth and his colleagues have developed the Geospace model version 2.0. This is the current NOAA use. They used state-of-the-art computer learning systems and statistical analysis methods. It gives astronomers and power grid managers a mere 30-minute warning before the sun hits the planet. This is enough time to turn on vital electrical systems or mitigate the effects of the storm.
To spot coronal mass ejections, Toth’s team uses X-ray data and UV data from a satellite that measures plasma parameters one million miles from Earth. Toth stated, “From that point, we can run a model and predict arrival time and impact magnetic events.”
NASA has launched many missions to help predict the turbulent behavior of our stars. The space agency launched the STEREO mission (Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory) in 2006. This mission saw a pair of observatories measure the ” flow energy and matter from the Sun to Earth. NASA currently works on two additional missions, Multi-slit Solar Explorer and HelioSwarm to better understand the Sun-Earth relationship.
In a February news release, Thomas Zurbuchen (associate administrator for science at NASA) stated that MUSE and HelioSwarm would provide deeper insights into the solar atmosphere, space weather, and other phenomena. These missions not only expand the science of other heliophysics missions but also offer a unique perspective on understanding the mysteries surrounding our star.
MUSE is a project that studies the forces that heat the corona and cause eruptions in the solar layer. “MUSE will fill in critical gaps in our knowledge pertaining to the Sun-Earth link,” Nicola Fox (director of NASA’s Heliophysics Division) said. It will give us more information about space weather and help us complement many other missions in the heliophysics fleet.”
The HelioSwarm is a group of nine spacecraft that are tasked with “first multiscale in space measurements of fluctuations and motions in the solar wind”
Peg Luce (deputy director of Heliophysics Division) stated that HelioSwarm’s small satellites working together in a constellation gives them the unique ability to study turbulence and its evolution within the solar wind.
As the telecommunications technology of humanity matures, these ongoing research efforts to understand our place in the solar systems and to be more neighborly with the huge nuclear fusion reactor down on the celestial block will prove to be vital. We cannot afford another 1859, regardless of how robust our systems are.
